Geopolitical Risks and International Tourist Arrivals to Turkey: a Causality Study

Authors

  • Engin Bayraktaroğlu Assistant Professor and full-time researcher at Anadolu University, professor in post graduation in Social Sciences; as well as in bachelor of Tourism Management (Turkey) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9956-2593
  • Samet Gürsoy Assistant Profesor and full time researcher at Burdur Mehmet Akif Ersoy University, professor in bachelor in international Finance, Economy (Turkey) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1020-7438
  • Fatih Günay Assistant Profesor and full-time researcher at Agrı Ibrahim Cecen University, professor in bachelor in Finance, Economy, Accounting and in Tourism. Member of the Association of Tourism Academics/TUADER (Turkey) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0892-514X
  • Yusuf Karakuş Assist. Prof. Dr. in the Ardeşen Vocational School, Department of Tourism and Travel Services at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan University (Turkey) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4878-3134

Keywords:

Geopolitical risks, International tourist demand, Tourist destination image

Abstract

This study aimed to examine the causal connection between geopolitical risks and Turkey's international tourist arrivals. The causality was tested between risk indices and foreign visitor demand on monthly data. Turkey was selected because many geopolitical risks had occurred in the last two decades and has had a terror risk named PKK for many years. The geopolitical risk indices were created from news based on the issues. The causality was tested using Toda-Yamamoto and asymmetric causality was tested using the Hatemi-J method in the period of 1998-2019. Findings of the study showed that there is unidirectional causality between global risks and tourist arrivals to Turkey, and bi-directional causality between domestic risk and tourist arrivals. Hatemi-J test results support the findings that the causality from positive shocks of risks causes negative shocks of tourist arrivals and vice versa. Herewith, it can be said that tourism demand to Turkey, in the context of foreign visitors, was affected by global or domestic geopolitical risks. This may be a sign that Turkey has a tourism-led terrorism problem targeting Turkey's tourism and economy.

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Author Biographies

Engin Bayraktaroğlu, Assistant Professor and full-time researcher at Anadolu University, professor in post graduation in Social Sciences; as well as in bachelor of Tourism Management (Turkey)

PhD of Tourism Management/Anadolu University (2019). MA in Tourism and Hotel Management/Kocatepe University (2013). Bachelor's Degree in Tourism and Hotel Management/Anadolu University (2010). Assistant Professor and full-time researcher at Anadolu University, professor in post graduation in Social Sciences; as well as in bachelor of Tourism Management. Visiting scholar in Karlsruhe/Germany (2016). Associate Editor of the Journal of Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality. [ enginbayraktaroglu@anadolu.edu.tr ]

Samet Gürsoy, Assistant Profesor and full time researcher at Burdur Mehmet Akif Ersoy University, professor in bachelor in international Finance, Economy (Turkey)

PhD of Economics/Suleyman Demirel University (2017). Master in Business Administration/FUSEM University (2012), Degree in Business Administration /Anatolian University (2009). Assistant Profesor and full time researcher at Burdur Mehmet Akif Ersoy University, professor in bachelor in international Finance, Economy. [ sametgursoy@mehmetakif.edu.tr ]

Fatih Günay, Assistant Profesor and full-time researcher at Agrı Ibrahim Cecen University, professor in bachelor in Finance, Economy, Accounting and in Tourism. Member of the Association of Tourism Academics/TUADER (Turkey)

PhD of Tourism Management/Mersin University (2019). Master in Tourism and Hotel Management/Afyon Kocatepe University (2012). Degree in Tourism and Hotel Management/Nevsehir Hacı Bektas Veli University (2009). Assistant Profesor and full-time researcher at Agrı Ibrahim Cecen University, professor in bachelor in Finance, Economy, Accounting and in Tourism. Member of the Association of Tourism Academics/TUADER (Turkey). [ fgunay@agri.edu.tr ]

Yusuf Karakuş, Assist. Prof. Dr. in the Ardeşen Vocational School, Department of Tourism and Travel Services at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan University (Turkey)

PhD in Production Management and Marketing by Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli University (2017), bachelor degree in Tourism and Hospitality Management by Erciyes University (2009). He is a Assist. Prof. Dr. in the Ardeşen Vocational School, Department of Tourism and Travel Services at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan University in Turkey. Interest areas: product development in tourism, multivariate decision making in tourism. [ yusuf.karakus@erdogan.edu.tr ]

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Published

2021-10-26

How to Cite

Bayraktaroğlu, E., Gürsoy, S., Günay, F., & Karakuş, Y. (2021). Geopolitical Risks and International Tourist Arrivals to Turkey: a Causality Study. Anais Brasileiros De Estudos Turísticos - ABET, 11. Retrieved from https://periodicos.ufjf.br/index.php/abet/article/view/34237

Issue

Section

Selected papers from International Travel & Tourism Dynamics-ITTD2020