Covid-19 Shock to Tourism Industry: Possible Scenarios for Predicted Losses Between 2020-2024

Authors

  • Mehmet Sariişik Professor and full-time researcher at Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, professor in post-graduation in Tourism Management and in Gastronomy and Culinary Arts, Editor of Tourism and Research Journal, (Turkey) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0681-6137
  • Oğuz Türkay Professor at the Gastronomy and Culinary Arts Department, Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, (Turkey) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0752-6799
  • Serkan Şengül Associate Professor and full-time researcher at Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, associate professor in post-graduation in Tourism Management, (Turkey) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4615-1982
  • İbrahim Murat Bicil Assistant professor at Balıkesir University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, (Turkey) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4684-5626
  • Erhan Boğan Associate Professor and full-time researcher in Tourism Guiding at Adiyaman University, (Turkey) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8225-4666

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.34019/2238-2925.2021.v11.33258

Keywords:

Covid-19 and tourism, Arrival estimates, Income estimates, Covid-19 and economy

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to generate estimates of the total income and tourist arrivals in the tourism industry with the Covid-19 pandemic in the next five years (2020-2024). For this purpose, estimates were produced through ARV formulation considering the secondary data obtained from the official statistics in the 1995-2018 UNWTO reports and three different scenarios published in the World Economic Outlook April report. Taking the emerging results into account, if the Covid-19 pandemic lasts longer than expected (the best of the worst scenario), the next five years’ average tourist arrival shrinkage maybe -5,04% and an economic loss of $70.6 billion may occur. However, according to the worst-case scenario, an annual contraction of -11.54% and an economic loss of 141.8 billion dollars are expected in the tourism sector.

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Author Biographies

Mehmet Sariişik, Professor and full-time researcher at Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, professor in post-graduation in Tourism Management and in Gastronomy and Culinary Arts, Editor of Tourism and Research Journal, (Turkey)

PhD of Tourism Management /ADU (1998). Master in Tourism and Hotel Management/ AU (1994). Degree in Tourism and Hotel Management/ CU (1992). Professor and full-time researcher at Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, professor in post-graduation in Tourism Management and in Gastronomy and Culinary Arts, Editor of Tourism and Research Journal (TURAR). [ msariisik@subu.edu.tr ]

Oğuz Türkay, Professor at the Gastronomy and Culinary Arts Department, Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, (Turkey)

PhD of Tourism Business in Dokuzeylül University (2007). Master’s degree in Tourism Business at İstanbul University (2003). Bachelor’s degree in Tourism Business and Hotel Management at Erciyes Universiy (1996). Professor at the Gastronomy and Culinary Arts Department, Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, Turkey. His research interests are mainly based on behaviour and social interactions in tourism. [ turkay@subu.edu.tr ]

Serkan Şengül, Associate Professor and full-time researcher at Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, associate professor in post-graduation in Tourism Management, (Turkey)

Ph.D. of Tourism Management/SAU (2016). Master in Tourism Management/SAU (2010). Degree in Hospitality Management/BAUN (2007). Associate Professor and full-time researcher at Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, associate professor in post-graduation in Tourism Management; as well as in bachelor of Gastronomy and Culinary Arts. [ serkansengul@subu.edu.tr ]

İbrahim Murat Bicil, Assistant professor at Balıkesir University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, (Turkey)

Ph.D in Economics (2015) at Balıkesir University. He is assistant professor at Balıkesir University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics. His research interests include economic theory, applied economics, environmental and natural resources economics, and energy economics. [ muratbicil@balikesir.edu.tr ]

Erhan Boğan, Associate Professor and full-time researcher in Tourism Guiding at Adiyaman University, (Turkey)

PhD of Tourism and Hospitality Management (2018). Master in Tourism Management/Akdeniz University (2015). Degree in Tourism Management/Akdeniz University (2013). Associate Professor and full-time researcher in Tourism Guiding at Adiyaman University. [ ebogan@adiyaman.edu.tr ]

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Published

2021-10-11

How to Cite

Sariişik, M. ., Türkay, O. ., Şengül, S. ., Murat Bicil, İbrahim ., & Boğan, E. . (2021). Covid-19 Shock to Tourism Industry: Possible Scenarios for Predicted Losses Between 2020-2024. Anais Brasileiros De Estudos Turísticos - ABET, 11. https://doi.org/10.34019/2238-2925.2021.v11.33258