Covid-19 Choque na Indústria do Turismo: Cenários Possíveis para Perdas Previstas Entre 2020-2024

Autores

  • Mehmet Sariişik Professor and full-time researcher at Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, professor in post-graduation in Tourism Management and in Gastronomy and Culinary Arts, Editor of Tourism and Research Journal, (Turkey) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0681-6137
  • Oğuz Türkay Professor at the Gastronomy and Culinary Arts Department, Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, (Turkey) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0752-6799
  • Serkan Şengül Associate Professor and full-time researcher at Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, associate professor in post-graduation in Tourism Management, (Turkey) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4615-1982
  • İbrahim Murat Bicil Assistant professor at Balıkesir University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, (Turkey) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4684-5626
  • Erhan Boğan Associate Professor and full-time researcher in Tourism Guiding at Adiyaman University, (Turkey) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8225-4666

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5770234

Palavras-chave:

Covid-19 e turismo, Estimativas de chegada, Estimativas de receita, Covid-19 e economia

Resumo

O objetivo principal deste estudo é gerar estimativas da receita total e das chegadas de turistas na indústria do turismo com a pandemia Covid-19 nos próximos cinco anos (2020-2024). Para tanto, foram produzidas estimativas por meio da formulação de ARVs considerando os dados secundários obtidos nas estatísticas oficiais dos relatórios da OMT 1995-2018 e três cenários diferentes publicados no relatório World Economic Outlook de abril. Levando em consideração os resultados emergentes, se a pandemia de Covid-19 durar mais do que o esperado (o melhor do pior cenário), a redução média da chegada de turistas nos próximos cinco anos pode ser de -5,04% e uma perda econômica de $ 70,6 bilhões pode ocorrer. No entanto, de acordo com o pior cenário, uma contração anual de -11,54% e uma perda econômica de 141,8 bilhões de dólares são esperados no setor de turismo.

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Biografia do Autor

Mehmet Sariişik, Professor and full-time researcher at Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, professor in post-graduation in Tourism Management and in Gastronomy and Culinary Arts, Editor of Tourism and Research Journal, (Turkey)

PhD of Tourism Management /ADU (1998). Master in Tourism and Hotel Management/ AU (1994). Degree in Tourism and Hotel Management/ CU (1992). Professor and full-time researcher at Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, professor in post-graduation in Tourism Management and in Gastronomy and Culinary Arts, Editor of Tourism and Research Journal (TURAR). [ msariisik@subu.edu.tr ]

Oğuz Türkay, Professor at the Gastronomy and Culinary Arts Department, Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, (Turkey)

PhD of Tourism Business in Dokuzeylül University (2007). Master’s degree in Tourism Business at İstanbul University (2003). Bachelor’s degree in Tourism Business and Hotel Management at Erciyes Universiy (1996). Professor at the Gastronomy and Culinary Arts Department, Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, Turkey. His research interests are mainly based on behaviour and social interactions in tourism. [ turkay@subu.edu.tr ]

Serkan Şengül, Associate Professor and full-time researcher at Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, associate professor in post-graduation in Tourism Management, (Turkey)

Ph.D. of Tourism Management/SAU (2016). Master in Tourism Management/SAU (2010). Degree in Hospitality Management/BAUN (2007). Associate Professor and full-time researcher at Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, associate professor in post-graduation in Tourism Management; as well as in bachelor of Gastronomy and Culinary Arts. [ serkansengul@subu.edu.tr ]

İbrahim Murat Bicil, Assistant professor at Balıkesir University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, (Turkey)

Ph.D in Economics (2015) at Balıkesir University. He is assistant professor at Balıkesir University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics. His research interests include economic theory, applied economics, environmental and natural resources economics, and energy economics. [ muratbicil@balikesir.edu.tr ]

Erhan Boğan, Associate Professor and full-time researcher in Tourism Guiding at Adiyaman University, (Turkey)

PhD of Tourism and Hospitality Management (2018). Master in Tourism Management/Akdeniz University (2015). Degree in Tourism Management/Akdeniz University (2013). Associate Professor and full-time researcher in Tourism Guiding at Adiyaman University. [ ebogan@adiyaman.edu.tr ]

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Publicado

2021-10-11

Como Citar

Sariişik, M. ., Türkay, O. ., Şengül, S. ., Murat Bicil, İbrahim ., & Boğan, E. . (2021). Covid-19 Choque na Indústria do Turismo: Cenários Possíveis para Perdas Previstas Entre 2020-2024. Anais Brasileiros De Estudos Turísticos, 11. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5770234