Covid-19 Shock to Tourism Industry: Possible Scenarios for Predicted Losses Between 2020-2024
Keywords:Covid-19 and tourism, Arrival estimates, Income estimates, Covid-19 and economy
The main purpose of this study is to generate estimates of the total income and tourist arrivals in the tourism industry with the Covid-19 pandemic in the next five years (2020-2024). For this purpose, estimates were produced through ARV formulation considering the secondary data obtained from the official statistics in the 1995-2018 UNWTO reports and three different scenarios published in the World Economic Outlook April report. Taking the emerging results into account, if the Covid-19 pandemic lasts longer than expected (the best of the worst scenario), the next five years’ average tourist arrival shrinkage maybe -5,04% and an economic loss of $70.6 billion may occur. However, according to the worst-case scenario, an annual contraction of -11.54% and an economic loss of 141.8 billion dollars are expected in the tourism sector.
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