Génesis de los Riesgos en el Turismo: una mirada desde Rusia (2000–2022)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17676063Palabras clave:
COVID-19, Tourism, Risks in Tourism, Risk Reduction Methods, Travel Risk FactorsResumen
La seguridad turística ha sido y seguirá siendo un factor crucial que influye tanto en el desarrollo del destino como en la motivación de los turistas al elegirlo para sus vacaciones. Al mismo tiempo, las cuestiones de clasificación de riesgos en el turismo y los mecanismos para mitigar sus consecuencias siguen siendo de interés para los investigadores y requieren soluciones. El estudio realizó un análisis retrospectivo de los riesgos del turismo desde los comienzos del siglo XXI hasta la actualidad. Al investigar los problemas de reducción de riesgos en el turismo, la tarea consistió en identificar el impacto de los riesgos en la situación y el desarrollo de este ámbito. Las entrevistas en profundidad realizadas a 140 investigadores rusos mostraron que, además de los riesgos políticos, económicos, epidemiológicos y naturales existentes, pueden surgir otros factores. Los riesgos, como el estado de incertidumbre, conducen a que, en el punto de “bifurcación”, sea imposible determinar el vector del desarrollo posterior. Las previsiones formuladas por los expertos sobre los riesgos turísticos no son tan optimistas como las de los representantes de la OMT, que anuncian la recuperación del mercado turístico internacional para 2023. Como resultado de la investigación, se desarrolló un modelo de la naturaleza de los riesgos del turismo según su origen y su nivel de influencia en el sector. Los riesgos individuales se ilustran mediante ejemplos. Se llevó a cabo un análisis de los riesgos del turismo en el sector ruso y se identificaron mecanismos eficaces para minimizar sus consecuencias, entre los que se incluyen el apoyo estatal, la planificación estratégica del desarrollo de los destinos y la gestión de riesgos a nivel regional y local, entre otros.
Descargas
Citas
Afanasiev, O. E., Afanasieva, A. V., Sarancha, M. A., & Oborin, M. S. (2020). The Territory of the Country as an Object of Tourist Safety: Global Practice and the Case of Russia. In book: Tourism, Terrorism and Security. Bingley : Emerald Publishing Limited, 63-87. DOI: 10.1108/978-1-83867-905-720201005.
Afanasiev, O. E., & Afanasieva, A. V. (2021). Tourism Industry in Russia and Global Covid-19 Pandemic: Threats, Counteractions, Trends. Anais Brasileiros De Estudos Turísticos, 11. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.5770991.
Akadiria, S. S., Eluwoleb, K. K., Akadiri, A. Ch., & Avci, T. (2020). Does causality between geopolitical risk, tourism and economic growth matter? Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 43, 273-277. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhtm.2019.09.002.
Arbulú, I., Razumova, M., Rey-Maquieiraa, J., & Sastrea, F. (2021). Measuring risks and vulnerability of tourism to the COVID-19 crisis in the context of extreme uncertainty: The case of the Balearic Islands. Tourism Management Perspectives, 39, 100857. DOI: 10.1016/j.tmp.2021.100857.
Bayraktaroğlu, E., Gürsoy, S., Günay, F., & Karakuş, Y. (2021). Geopolitical risks and international tourist arrivals to Turkey: a causality study. Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos: ABET, 11(1), 27.
Bird, D. K., Gisladottir, G., & Dominey-Howesd, D. (2010). Volcanic risk and tourism in southern Iceland: Implications for hazard, risk and emergency response education and training. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 189(1-2), 33-48. DOI: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2009.09.020.
Casado-Aranda, L. A, Sánchez-Fernández, J., & Bastidas-Manzano, A. B. (2021). Tourism research after the COVID-19 outbreak: Insights for more sustainable, local and smart cities. Sustainable Cities and Society, 73, 103126. DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2021.103126.
Cheng, S. O., & Khan, S. (2020). Europe’s response to COVID-19 in March and April 2020 – A letter to the editor on “world health organization declares global emergency: A review of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19)” (Int J surg 2020; 76: 71-6). International Journal of Surgery, 78(3), 3-4. DOI: 10.1016/Fj.ijsu.2020.04.011.
Chien, P. M., Sharifpour, M., Ritchie, B. W., & Watson, B. (2017). Travelers’ health risk perceptions and protective behavior: A psychological approach. Journal of Travel Research, 56(6), 744-759. DOI: 10.1177/0047287516665479.
Davidmac, O., Ekeocha, D. O., Ogbuabor, J. E., Orji, A., & Kalu, Сhi, J. (2020). The impact of third-country exchange rate risk on international air travel flows: The case of Korean outbound tourism demand. Transport Policy, 89, 66-78. DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.01.012.
U. I. (2021). International Tourism and Economic Growth in Africa: A post-global financial crisis analysis. Tourism Management Perspectives, 40, 100896. DOI: 10.1016/j.tmp.2021.100896.
Delia, V. P., Kulgachev, I. P., & Romanova, M. M. (2021). Factor “COVID-19” and its impact on the tourism industry in Russia: statistical analysis. Bulletin of the Academy of Law and Management, 2(63), 105-110. DOI: 10.47629/2074-9201_2021_2_105_110.
Dzhandzhugazova, E. A., Romanova, M. M., Blinova, E. A., Semkina, N. S., & Basem, A. (2018). Model of hotel crisis management: Russian and foreign experience. Modern Journal of Language Teaching Methods, 8(11), 38-52.
Joo, D., Xu, W., Lee, J., Lee, Ch., & Woosnam, K. M. (2021). Residents’ perceived risk, emotional solidarity, and support for tourism amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 19, 100553. DOI: 10.1016/j.jdmm.2021.100553.
Fan, V. Y., Jamison, D. T., & Summers, L. H. (2018). Pandemic risk: How large are the expected losses? Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 96(2), 129. DOI: 10.2471/FBLT.17.199588.
Fuchs, G., & Reichel, A. (2011). An exploratory inquiry into destination risk perceptions and risk reduction strategies of first time vs. repeat visitors to a highly volatile destination. Tourism Management, 32(2), 266-276. DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2010.01.012.
Gorbunov, A. P., Kolyadin, A. P., Gazgireeva, L. Kh., Burnyasheva, L. A., & Shtapova, I. S. (2020). Directions of improving the competitiveness of the tourism industry in the global economy. Revista Turismo Estudos & Práticas, S2, 42-46.
Gossling, S., Scott, D., & Hall, C. M. (2020). Pandemics, tourism and global change: A rapid assessment of COVID-19. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 1-20. DOI: 10.1080/09669582.2020.1758708.
Hamm, D., & Su, Ch.-H. (2021). Managing tourism safety and risk: Using the Delphi expert consensus method in developing the event tourism security self-beliefs scale. Hospitality and Tourism Management, 49, 364-374. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhtm.2021.10.001.
Hansen, M., Rogers, D., Fyall, A., Spyriadis, Th., & Brander-Brown, J. (2019). Collaborative industry risk management in adventure tourism: A case study of the US aerial adventure industry. Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, 28, 100218. DOI: 10.1016/j.jort.2019.03.008.
Healy, T. J., Hill, N. J., Barnett, A., & Chin, A. (2020). A global review of elasmobranch tourism activities, management and risk. Marine Policy, 118, 103964. DOI: 10.1016/j.marpol.2020.103964.
Holm, M. R., Lugosi, P., Croes Robertico, R., & Torres, E. N. (2017). Risk-tourism, risk-taking and subjective well-being: A review and synthesis. Tourism Management, 63, 115-122. DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2017.06.004.
Fountain, J., & Cradock-Henry, N. A. (2020). Recovery, risk and resilience: Post-disaster tourism experiences in Kaikōura, New Zealand. Tourism Management Perspectives, 35, 100695. DOI: 10.1016/j.tmp.2020.100695.
Kant, I. (1994). Towards eternal peace. 1795. Works in 8. Vol. 7, 5-56.
Kim, W., Jun, H. M., Walker, M., & Drane, D. (2014). Evaluating the perceived social impacts of hosting large-scale sport tourism events: Scale development and validation. Tourism Management, 48, 21-32. DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2014.10.015.
Korstanje, M. E. (2021). COVİD-19 and the end of tourism research? new forms of tourism in the state of emergency. Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos: ABET, 11(1), 18.
Lakshmi Singh, A., Jamal, S., & Suhail, W. (2021). Ahmad Impact assessment of lockdown amid COVID-19 pandemic on tourism industry of Kashmir Valley. India Research in Globalization, 3, 100053. DOI: 10.1016/j.resglo.2021.100053.
Lepeshekin, V. A. (2014). “Soft power” of Russian tourism. Federalism, 3(75), 35-44.
Li, J., Fenga, Y., Li, G., & Suna, Х. (2020). Tourism companies’ risk exposures on text disclosure. Annals of Tourism Research, 84, 102986. DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2020.102986.
Liu, Y., Cheng, P., & Ou Yang, Z. (2019). Disaster risk, risk management, and tourism competitiveness: A cross-nation analysis. International Journal of Tourism Research, 21, 855-867. DOI: 10.1002/jtr.2310.
Lee, Ch.-Ch., & Chen, M.-P. (2021). Ecological footprint, tourism development, and country risk: International evidence. Journal of Cleaner Production Ecological footprint, tourism development and country risk: international evidence, 279, 123671. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123671.
London, W. R., Lohmann, G., & Moyle, B. D. (2021). Network fragmentation and risk in cruise tourism infrastructure development: Auckland, New Zealand. Case Studies on Transport Policy, 9(1), 336-347. DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2021.01.011.
Marrero-Rodríguez, R., Morini-Marrero, S., & Ramos-Henriquez, J. (2020). Tourism jobs in demand: Where the best contracts and high salaries go at online offers. Tourism Management Perspectives, 35, 100721. DOI: 10.1016/j.tmp.2020.100721.
Matiza, T. (2020). Post-COVID-19 crisis travel behavior: Towards mitigating the effects of perceived risk. Journal of Tourism Futures, 8(1), 99-108. DOI: 10.1108/JTF-04-2020-0063.
Morozov, M. M. (2020). Anti-crisis management in the tourism industry. Scientific result. Business and service technologies, 6(4), 19-27. DOI: 10.18413/2408-9346-2020-6-4-0-3.
Musavenganea, R., Siakwahb, P., & Leonardc, L. (2020). The nexus between tourism and urban risk: Towards inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable outdoor tourism in African cities. Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, 29, 100254. DOI: 10.1016/j.jort.2019.100254.
Olefs, M., Formayer, H., Gobiet, A., Marke, T., Schöner, W., & Revesz, M. (2021). Past and future changes of the Austrian climate – Importance for tourism. Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, 34, 100395. DOI: 10.1016/j.jort.2021.100395.
Oliva, F. L., Teberga, P. M. F. et al. (2021). Risks and critical success factors in the internationalization of born global startups of industry 4.0: A social, environmental, economic, and institutional analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 175, 121346. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121346.
Ostrowska, M., & Mazur, S. (2015). Diversified Risk Management. Procedia Economics and Finance, 23, 615-621. DOI: 10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00370-6.
Pantano, E., Scarpi, D., Vannucci, V., Bilotta, E., & Pantano, P. (2021). Probability-density risk-maps for tourism during emergencies. Annals of Tourism Research, 92(10), 103259. DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103259.
Paraskevas, A., & Quek, M. (2019). When Castro seized the Hilton: Risk and crisis management lessons from the past. Tourism Management, 70, 419-429. DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2018.09.007.
Qiu, R., Park, J., Li, Sh., & Song, H. (2020). Social costs of tourism during the COVID-19 pandemic. Annals of Tourism Research, 84, 102994. DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2020.102994.
Quintal, V. A., Lee, J. A., & Soutar, G. N. (2010). Tourists’ information search: The differential impact of risk and uncertainty avoidance. International Journal of Tourism Research, 12(4), 321-333. DOI: 10.1002/jtr.753.
Romanova, M. M., & Kulgachev, I. P. (2020). Characteristics of risks in tourism. CITISE, 2, 123-134. DOI: 10.15350/2409-7616.2020.2.12.
Romanova, M. M. et al. (2015). Priorities of strategic development of the tourism industry in Russia. Competitiveness of business structures in the information society: A monograph. Moscow, 125-127.
Ruban, D. A., Molchanova, T. K., & Yashalova, N. N. (2019). Three rising tourism directions and climate change: Conceptualizing new opportunities. e-Review of Tourism Research, 16(4), 352-370.
Sariişik, M., Türkay, O., Şengül, S., Bicil, İ. M., & Boğan, E. (2021). Covid-19 shock to Tourism Industry: Possible scenarios for predicted losses between 2020-2024. Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos: ABET, 11(1), 14.
Sheng-Hshiung, T., Gwo-Hshiung, T., & Kuo-Ching, W. (1997). Evaluating tourist risks from fuzzy perspectives. Annals of Tourism Research, 24(4), 796-812.
Uğur, N. G., & Akbıyık, A. (2020). Impacts of COVID-19 on global tourism industry: A cross-regional comparison. Tourism Management Perspectives, 36, 100744. DOI: 10.1016/j.tmp.2020.100744.
Villa, S., Di Nica, V., Castiglioni, S., & Finizio, A. (2020). Environmental risk classification of emerging contaminants in an alpine stream influenced by seasonal tourism. Ecological Indicators, 115, 106428. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106428.
Villac´e-Molinero, T., Fernandez-Munoz, J. J., Orea-Giner, A., & Fuentes-Moraleda, L. (2021). Understanding the new post-COVID-19 risk scenario: Outlooks and challenges for a new era of tourism. Tourism Management, 86, 104324. doi: 10.1016/j. tourman.2021.104324.
Williams, A. M., & Baláž, V. (2015). Tourism Risk and Uncertainty: Theoretical Reflections. Journal of Travel Research, 54(3), 271-287. DOI: 10.1177/0047287514523334.
Wolff, K., Larsen, S., & Øgaard, T. (2019). How to define and measure risk perceptions. Annals of Tourism Research, 79, 102759. DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2019.102759.
Yang, C. L., & Nair, V. (2014). Risk perception study in tourism: Are we really measuring perceived risk. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 144(1), 322-327.
Yang, Y., Zhang, C. X., & Rickly, J. M. (2021). A review of early COVID-19 research in tourism: Launching the Annals of Tourism Research’s Curated Collection on coronavirus and tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 91, 103313. DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103313.
Yang, E. C. L., Khoo-Lattimore, C., & Arcodia, C. (2017). A systematic literature review of risk and gender research in tourism. Tourism Management, 58, 89-100.
ATOR (2021). ATOR named 10 most popular Russian regions for tourists in 2021 | Interfax-Tourism (interfax.ru). The results of the summer tourist season 2021. URL: http://www.welcometimes.ru
FSSS (2019, 2020, 2022). Official website of the Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/44040.
RFAT (2022). Russian Federal Agency for Tourism URL: https://www.russiatourism.ru. Number of inbound tourist trips (rosstat.gov.ru).
TTCR (2015). The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2015: Growth through Shocks. URL: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/TT15/WEF_Global_Travel&Tourism_Report_2015.pdf.
TTCR (2017). The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2017: Paving the way for a more sustainable and inclusive future / R. Crotti & T. Misrah. World Economic Forum 2017. URL: http://www3.weforum.org/ docs/WEF_TTCR_2017_web_0401.pdf.
TTCR (2019). The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2019. https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-travel-tourism-competitiveness-report-2019.
UNWTO (1996). Tourist safety and security: Practical measures for destinations. 1996. URL: http://www2.unwto.org/publication/tourist-safety-and-security-practical-measures-destinations.
UNWTO (2002–2020). Tourism Highlights. 2002, 2005, 2010, 2012, 2017, 2020 URL: https://tourlib.net/wto/WTO_highlights_2002.pdf.
UNWTO Barometer (2021). Outlook for 2021. URL: https://www.unwto.org/taxonomy/term/347.
WEF (2015). Thea Chiesa. World Economic Forum. URL: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/TT15/WEF_Global_Travel&Tourism_Report_2015.pdf.
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2026 Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.
This journal provides immediate open access to its content, following the principle that providing free scientific knowledge to the public provides greater democratization of world knowledge.
Authors must agree to the following terms relating to copyrights:
(a) Authors keep all copyright and grant the to the journal the right of first publication, with the work simultaneously licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution License that allowing job sharing with recognition of authorship of the work and initial publication in this journal.
(b) Authors are allowed to assume additional contracts separately, for non-exclusive distribution of the version of the work published in this journal (e.g. publish in institutional repository or book chapter), with recognition of authorship and initial publication in this magazine.
(c) Authors are allowed and are encouraged to publish and distribute their work online (e.g. in institutional repositories or on your personal page) since they do not do this before or during the editorial process, as this can generate productive interchange, as well as increase the impact and citation of work aired. (See Effect of Free Access).
English 
Spanish 
Portuguese 
